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端午临近需求弱 稻米跌势何时休
 

laiyuan:zhonghualiangwang

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政策拍卖继续成交低位运行

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fenpinzhongkan,jingdaochengjiaolianggaoda22.5wandun,zhanbiyue91%;xiandaochengjiaoliang2.2wandun,zhanbi9%。fenshengfenkan,jingdaochengjiaozhuyaojizhongzaiheilongjiangsheng,xiandaochengjiaozhuyaojizhongzaianhuishenghehunansheng,qitashengfenchengjiaoliangxiangduijiaoshao。zonghetongji,jiezhi6yue16ri,2020nianzhengcexingdaoguleijitoufang3900wandun,shijichengjiao640wandun,chengjiaolv16%,leijichukuliangyue1/3。

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利多因素缺乏陈稻行情下行

黑龙江:供需宽松,粳稻市场行情主要由拍卖主导,价格稳中略跌。随着政策性稻谷增量投放,市场主体参与粳稻拍卖更加谨慎,囤粮意愿逐渐下降,多以随用随采为主。截至6月16日,佳木斯圆粒粳稻收购价2640元/吨,较上周涨40元/吨;圆粒粳米出厂价4000元/吨,持平。七台河圆粒粳稻收购价2660元/吨,较上周跌50元/吨;圆粒粳米出厂价3820元/吨,跌60元/吨。由于南方销区进入梅雨季节,大米保管难度加大,贸易商走货量下降,不利于省内粳米外销,预计短期稻米价格上行乏力。

吉林:稻米市场处于季节性消费淡季,价格继续弱势稳定。粳稻生长处于分蘖期,由于气温偏低,现阶段生长缓慢,基本接近常年同期水平。截至6月16日,14.5%水分超级稻收购价2860~2960元/吨,14.5%水分、67%出米率普通杂交稻收购价2640~2680元/吨,均与上周持平,尤其是普通杂交稻市场有价无市行情凸显;超级稻小粒米出厂价4140~4180元/吨,持平。目前米厂加工处于倒挂状态,稻谷价格处于相对高位,大米出厂价格始终处于相对低位,稻谷加工处于保本或微亏状态,米厂只能利用前期库存和副产品利润来维持长期客户关系。目前全省粳稻收购量在550万吨左右,余粮130万吨左右,粳稻余粮占产量的比重约为19%。

湖南:稻米价格保持稳定,有价无市行情凸显。由于终端需求低迷,部分米厂处于停工或半停工状态,原粮市场需求相对较少。截至6月16日,益阳陈早稻出库价2250元/吨,长沙陈中晚籼稻出库价2280元/吨、晚籼米批发价3900元/吨,均与上周持平。

湖北:中晚籼稻市场购销低迷,价格继续趋弱。省内市场流通余粮基本见底,国储和地储稻谷拍卖持续,原粮供应相对充足。当前处于大米季节性消费淡季,消费受到不同程度影响,走货量下降明显,抑制稻米行情。截至6月16日,荆州2019年产晚籼稻2660元/吨,较上周跌20元/吨;2016年产陈晚籼稻出库价2300元/吨,持平。

江西:大米加工企业开机率进一步下降,由于大米前期集中上量影响,短期需求饱和,价格下降明显。原粮市场供应主要依赖于政策性稻谷投放,供需宽松,市场主体入市采购积极性下降。截至6月16日,南昌陈早稻出库价2140元/吨,较上周跌80元/吨;宜春陈晚籼稻出库价2260元/吨,持平;南昌晚籼米批发价3400元/吨,跌80元/吨。短期稻米行情缺乏利好消息提振,预计下行压力继续加大。

福建:稻谷市场整体处于饱和状态,下游大米需求仍偏弱,走货量不多,米企开机率处于持续下滑状态,加上稻米步入传统消费淡季,集团性大米消费受限,短期稻米价格继续稳中偏弱。截至6月16日,福州早籼米批发价3500元/吨,晚籼米批发价3980元/吨,均与上周持平。

广东:粤西早稻已经上市,由于新稻粮源偏紧,收购价格同比有所上涨。短期市场供应仍以陈稻为主,由于供应宽松,陈稻价格持续稳中偏弱运行。截至6月16日,清远陈晚籼稻出库价2220元/吨,广州早籼米批发价3480元/吨、晚籼米批发价4040元/吨,均与上周持平。后期随着政策性稻谷投放力度加大以及地方粮库持续投放,预计市场采购陈稻能力和意愿将持续降温,价格将呈稳中有跌态势。

全球供需宽松大米出口价稳

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早稻苗情略好琼粤陆续上市

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